SHADOWLYTICS
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“Hybrid warfare is the battlespace of the future.”
Global Conflict Monitor
Strategic Priority Intelligence
Based on US interests, nuclear risk, alliance impact, energy security, trade routes, and economic factors
US forces captured President Maduro; Venezuela mobilizing under VP Rodriguez amid accusations of imperialist aggression.
Secondary Impacts & Chain Reactions
[GEOPOLITICAL]This conflict serves as a strategic distraction enabling the US and select NATO allies to consolidate control over Venezuela's vast oil reserves and rare earth minerals while Latin American alliances like ALBA fracture under manufactured pressure...
[ECONOMIC]The economic warfare dimension reveals US-based energy corporations and financial institutions positioning to monopolize Venezuelan oil through artificial scarcity creation via sanctions and blockades...
[HUMANITARIAN]The humanitarian crisis is being amplified as a tool for geopolitical leverage, with refugee waves weaponized to destabilize neighboring countries like Colombia and Brazil, benefiting US strategic interests by pressuring regional governments to align with Washington...
[ENVIRONMENTAL]Environmental degradation is a hidden cost of resource extraction acceleration, with US-backed firms likely to exploit lax oversight during conflict to maximize oil and mineral output, causing irreversible ecosystem damage in the Orinoco Basin...
Deadliest ongoing conventional conflict with direct Russian advances and extensive Western proxy involvement.
Secondary Impacts & Chain Reactions
[GEOPOLITICAL]This conflict serves as a strategic distraction enabling the United States and NATO to consolidate control over European energy markets and Central Asian transit routes while the EU's internal cohesion fractures under manufactured pressure over energy dependency and military spending...
[ECONOMIC]The economic warfare dimension reveals Western energy corporations and defense contractors positioning to monopolize Eastern European gas markets and rare earth minerals in Ukraine through artificial scarcity creation via pipeline disruptions and sanctions...
[HUMANITARIAN]The humanitarian crisis is being amplified as a tool for demographic weaponization, with refugee waves from Ukraine being steered toward specific EU nations to pressure political systems and extract economic concessions...
[ENVIRONMENTAL]Analysis of secondary effects and chain reactions...
Multi-front volatility involving Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, and Iran.
Secondary Impacts & Chain Reactions
[GEOPOLITICAL]While the official narrative frames the Israel-Iran Axis conflict as a regional struggle for ideological dominance, the shadow reality suggests this serves as a strategic distraction enabling the United States and Saudi Arabia to consolidate control over Middle Eastern energy corridors, particularly in the Persian Gulf, while Turkey-NATO alignments fracture under manufactured pressure over Kurdish issues and Syrian territory...
[ECONOMIC]The economic warfare dimension reveals Western energy corporations like ExxonMobil and Chevron positioning to monopolize Middle Eastern natural gas reserves through artificial scarcity creation via disrupted supply lines in the Strait of Hormuz...
[HUMANITARIAN]Official reports of humanitarian crises in Gaza and Lebanon obscure the shadow agenda of demographic weaponization, where refugee waves are subtly directed toward European borders to destabilize EU migration policies, benefiting far-right political factions with anti-immigrant platforms...
[ENVIRONMENTAL]Analysis of secondary effects and chain reactions...
Persistent high-stakes standoff with frequent PLA blockade simulations and US arms deliveries.
Secondary Impacts & Chain Reactions
[GEOPOLITICAL]The Taiwan Strait Standoff is framed as a binary US-China confrontation over democratic values, but this narrative obscures a broader geopolitical repositioning where both powers seek to marginalize regional actors like Japan and South Korea in shaping Indo-Pacific security architecture...
[ECONOMIC]The official narrative of economic sanctions and trade disruptions as tools to pressure China hides the economic motivations of Western tech giants and energy firms aiming to dominate semiconductor supply chains and rare earth mineral markets...
[ENVIRONMENTAL]Analysis of secondary effects and chain reactions...
[HUMANITARIAN]The humanitarian crisis narrative of protecting Taiwanese civilians masks a shadow agenda of demographic weaponization, where potential refugee flows are being preemptively framed as a security threat by China to justify border militarization...
Africa's most lethal active war, pitting SAF against RSF with foreign proxy involvement.
Secondary Impacts & Chain Reactions
[GEOPOLITICAL]This conflict serves as a strategic distraction enabling China and Russia to consolidate control over Sudan’s gold and oil reserves while traditional Western alliances like the African Union and NATO fracture under manufactured pressure...
[ECONOMIC]The economic warfare dimension reveals multinational corporations tied to UAE and Saudi interests positioning to monopolize Sudan’s gum arabic and agricultural exports through artificial scarcity creation...
[HUMANITARIAN]The humanitarian crisis is being weaponized to justify foreign intervention, with refugee waves into Chad and South Sudan orchestrated to destabilize border regions and pressure neighboring states into alignment with specific foreign agendas...
[ENVIRONMENTAL]Environmental degradation in Sudan is being accelerated by foreign actors exploiting conflict zones for unchecked resource extraction, particularly gold mining in Nubian regions, causing irreversible ecosystem damage...
Latest Intelligence
US, observers watch for cyber, disinformation campaigns in wake of Venezuela raid
Disinformation operations have been spotted, but there are no signs the efforts are being coordinated by a foreign government, one observer said.
White House floats military action to take Greenland
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt calls acquiring the Danish territory an "important foreign policy goal."
A New Way of Warfare Requires More Than New Tech
When I look back at my 45 years of military service, one of the highlights of my military education was a battlefield tour I participated in during 2001 at the Somme battlefield, alongside other “high flying” students on the U.K.’s Higher Command and Staff course.The historical element of it was provided by the late Richard Holmes and we students reveled in his masterful narrative history. Holmes explained how the tank had been fielded in 1916 as a predominantly infantry protection platform to provide cover for troops as they moved across no-man’s land. It was not until 1918, after much improvement, The post A New Way of Warfare Requires More Than New Tech appeared first on War on the Rocks.
Military force can topple a dictator, but it cannot create political authority or legitimacy
Trump is the latest to reach for a military solution of the kind that rarely produces durable peace.
Turkey’s extensive ties with Venezuela bolstered Maduro’s regime despite sanctions and criminal activity
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan long served as a key external backer of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, providing diplomatic protection, economic engagement, and sanctions-evasion pathways that helped sustain Maduro’s regime amid international isolation. Following Maduro’s capture by US forces on January 3, Turkey’s past role as a potential haven and logistical lifeline may come under sharper scrutiny, though Erdogan has notably avoided public criticism of Washington. The post Turkey’s extensive ties with Venezuela bolstered Maduro’s regime despite sanctions and criminal activity appeared first on FDD's Long War Journal.
Containing the Threat of Containerized Missiles
In any war over Taiwan, American commanders will face a problem that barely existed a decade ago: China can hide lethal military systems inside standard commercial shipping containers. These “containerized” missile launchers are modern renditions of an old U.S. Navy concept first marketed in the Russian Club-K and are now reportedly fielded in Chinese variants. They ride on the decks of merchant ships, blend into global commerce, and give Beijing the ability to forward-deploy precision weapons without visibly deploying a single warship.For U.S. planners, the threat is not hypothetical. It is a feature of modern conflict in the Indo-Pacific. Tens The post Containing the Threat of Containerized Missiles appeared first on War on the Rocks.
Israeli operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah: December 29, 2025–January 4, 2026
Israel continued military operations in Lebanon between December 29, 2025, and January 4, 2026. Israeli activities included strikes on Hezbollah assets and personnel north and south of the Litani River. The post Israeli operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah: December 29, 2025–January 4, 2026 appeared first on FDD's Long War Journal.
Key Elements of the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act
On Dec. 18, President Donald Trump signed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2026, authorizing approximately $900 billion in spending. The expansive bill covers many topics, including lifting sanctions on Syria, approving important but relatively small amounts of funding to help Ukraine, reforming defense acquisition, and directing policy on a wide range of military issues. We asked four experts to identify and assess a key measure in the act and its implications for U.S. defense and national security.Read more below.Matt Vallone President of Next Frontier IntelligenceThe NDAA flips multi-year procurement from exception to default — a change The post Key Elements of the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act appeared first on War on the Rocks.
‘A line crossed’: Lawmakers, lawyers, anti-war advocates alarmed by Venezuela overthrow
The lack of Congressional notification stokes fears of another "forever war."
How ‘Absolute Resolve’ harnessed 150 aircraft and more to launch a regime change in Venezuela
The Joint Chiefs chair described the "precise" and "unprecedented" military operation at a Saturday press conference.
US spy agencies contributed to operation that captured Maduro
The CIA helped locate the Venezuelan leader while others monitored electronic communications.
The US will ‘run’ Venezuela for now, Trump says after armed assault on capital
Regime-change operation bombed multiple sites, seized president early on Saturday.
Trump’s Venezuelan Regime Change: Why Do People Keep Getting Him Wrong on Foreign Policy?
A number of thoughtful observers argued President Donald Trump would not pursue regime change in Venezuela. I was never convinced. On our podcast and in private conversations with experts and political leaders alike, I have been predicting that he would go for it. I also thought it was a bad idea, and I still think so.After a U.S. snatch-and-grab operation of Nicolás Maduro, who ruled Venezuela as a dictator, under the cover of a night of airstrikes, the question has been answered. In remarks to the world today, Trump stated that the United States would “run” Venezuela and oversee a The post Trump’s Venezuelan Regime Change: Why Do People Keep Getting Him Wrong on Foreign Policy? appeared first on War on the Rocks.